Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg

  1. Fredrikstad23%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Rosenborg54%

1.04 expected goals for Fredrikstad

1.92 expected goals for Rosenborg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Rosenborg has the edge (54%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Fredrikstad win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rosenborg attack, which scores 100% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Rosenborg defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Fredrikstad

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Fredrikstad attack+9%
  3. Rosenborg defence−37%

Expected goals1.05

Rosenborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Rosenborg attack+100%
  2. Fredrikstad defence−29%

Expected goals1.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.0 for Fredrikstad and 4.7 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Fredrikstad and 2.2 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.6 expected

13.1 for Fredrikstad and 13.5 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.5 expected

11.7 for Fredrikstad and 12.8 for Rosenborg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.