Probably Football

Matches

Eliteserien (Norway)

Sunday 25 October, 11:00

Final score

Bodo/Glimt0-1Valerenga

The model gave this result 8%. Its most likely result was a Bodo/Glimt win (86%).

Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga

  1. Bodo/Glimt86%
  2. Draw6%
  3. Valerenga8%

3.68 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt

1.25 expected goals for Valerenga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Bodo/Glimt the clear favourite: 86% to win. It expects 4.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, and both teams scoring, 63%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals99%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals96%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals75%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals72%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals55%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.8 for Bodo/Glimt and 4.7 for Valerenga

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.2 for Bodo/Glimt and 2.1 for Valerenga

  1. Over 3.5 cards43%
  2. Over 4.5 cards24%
  3. Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

28.3 expected

18.3 for Bodo/Glimt and 10.0 for Valerenga

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.3 for Bodo/Glimt and 11.1 for Valerenga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.