Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg

  1. Hammarby FF50%
  2. Draw26%
  3. IF Elfsborg24%

1.54 expected goals for Hammarby FF

0.89 expected goals for IF Elfsborg

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Hammarby FF has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a IF Elfsborg win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hammarby FF defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Hammarby FF attack, which scores 59% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hammarby FF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hammarby FF attack+59%
  3. IF Elfsborg defence−36%

Expected goals1.55

IF Elfsborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. IF Elfsborg attack+33%
  2. Hammarby FF defence−51%

Expected goals0.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

5.8 for Hammarby FF and 4.8 for IF Elfsborg

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Hammarby FF and 2.2 for IF Elfsborg

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

26.1 expected

15.5 for Hammarby FF and 10.6 for IF Elfsborg

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

22.1 expected

10.7 for Hammarby FF and 11.4 for IF Elfsborg

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.