Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

IF Elfsborg vs Orgryte IS

  1. IF Elfsborg61%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Orgryte IS17%

2.20 expected goals for IF Elfsborg

1.01 expected goals for Orgryte IS

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes IF Elfsborg the clear favourite: 61% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the IF Elfsborg defence, which lets in 36% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the IF Elfsborg attack, which scores 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

IF Elfsborg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. IF Elfsborg attack+34%
  3. Orgryte IS defence+9%

Expected goals2.20

Orgryte IS

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Orgryte IS attack+15%
  2. IF Elfsborg defence−36%

Expected goals1.01

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

6.0 for IF Elfsborg and 4.0 for Orgryte IS

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for IF Elfsborg and 2.1 for Orgryte IS

  1. Over 3.5 cards45%
  2. Over 4.5 cards26%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

28.5 expected

19.0 for IF Elfsborg and 9.5 for Orgryte IS

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

21.4 expected

10.7 for IF Elfsborg and 10.8 for Orgryte IS

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.