Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF

  1. Djurgardens IF75%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Degerfors IF6%

2.35 expected goals for Djurgardens IF

0.58 expected goals for Degerfors IF

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Djurgardens IF the clear favourite: 75% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Djurgardens IF defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Djurgardens IF attack, which scores 69% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Djurgardens IF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Djurgardens IF attack+69%
  3. Degerfors IF defence−8%

Expected goals2.35

Degerfors IF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Degerfors IF attack−20%
  2. Djurgardens IF defence−47%

Expected goals0.58

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.9 for Djurgardens IF and 4.5 for Degerfors IF

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.4 expected

1.3 for Djurgardens IF and 2.1 for Degerfors IF

  1. Over 3.5 cards45%
  2. Over 4.5 cards26%
  3. Over 5.5 cards13%

Shots

25.5 expected

15.4 for Djurgardens IF and 10.1 for Degerfors IF

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots65%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

23.0 expected

10.6 for Djurgardens IF and 12.4 for Degerfors IF

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.