Probably Football

Matches

Allsvenskan (Sweden)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Orgryte IS vs Mjallby AIF

  1. Orgryte IS36%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Mjallby AIF39%

1.33 expected goals for Orgryte IS

1.35 expected goals for Mjallby AIF

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Orgryte IS

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Orgryte IS attack+17%
  3. Mjallby AIF defence−24%

Expected goals1.33

Mjallby AIF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Mjallby AIF attack−7%
  2. Orgryte IS defence+6%

Expected goals1.35

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.5 for Orgryte IS and 5.0 for Mjallby AIF

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for Orgryte IS and 2.4 for Mjallby AIF

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

27.5 expected

11.6 for Orgryte IS and 15.9 for Mjallby AIF

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

27.1 expected

13.3 for Orgryte IS and 13.8 for Mjallby AIF

  1. Over 20.5 fouls88%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls79%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls66%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.