Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

  1. Union Santa Fe33%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Velez Sarsfield39%

1.17 expected goals for Union Santa Fe

1.76 expected goals for Velez Sarsfield

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Velez Sarsfield defence, which lets in 43% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Velez Sarsfield attack, which scores 48% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Union Santa Fe

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Union Santa Fe attack+35%
  3. Velez Sarsfield defence−43%

Expected goals1.17

Velez Sarsfield

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Velez Sarsfield attack+48%
  2. Union Santa Fe defence−12%

Expected goals1.76

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.0 for Union Santa Fe and 4.1 for Velez Sarsfield

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.9 for Union Santa Fe and 2.4 for Velez Sarsfield

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

28.9 expected

14.9 for Union Santa Fe and 13.9 for Velez Sarsfield

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

21.3 expected

11.0 for Union Santa Fe and 10.4 for Velez Sarsfield

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls26%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.