Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra

  1. Independiente47%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Deportivo Riestra21%

1.21 expected goals for Independiente

0.65 expected goals for Deportivo Riestra

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Independiente has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 32% and a Deportivo Riestra win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independiente defence, which lets in 33% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Deportivo Riestra defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 1.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 33% chance, and both teams scoring, 42%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Independiente

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Independiente attack+17%
  3. Deportivo Riestra defence−32%

Expected goals1.21

Deportivo Riestra

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Deportivo Riestra attack−29%
  2. Independiente defence−33%

Expected goals0.65

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals84%
  2. Over 1.5 goals56%
  3. Over 2.5 goals33%
  4. Over 3.5 goals12%
  5. Over 4.5 goals4%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.9 for Independiente and 3.9 for Deportivo Riestra

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Independiente and 2.5 for Deportivo Riestra

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

24.4 expected

14.9 for Independiente and 9.5 for Deportivo Riestra

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

24.2 expected

10.8 for Independiente and 13.4 for Deportivo Riestra

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.