Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Gimnasia L.P. vs Belgrano Cordoba

  1. Gimnasia L.P.41%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Belgrano Cordoba28%

1.23 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P.

1.11 expected goals for Belgrano Cordoba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Gimnasia L.P. has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 31% and a Belgrano Cordoba win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Belgrano Cordoba defence, which lets in 41% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gimnasia L.P. defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 40% chance, and both teams scoring, 46%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Gimnasia L.P.

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Gimnasia L.P. attack+39%
  3. Belgrano Cordoba defence−41%

Expected goals1.23

Belgrano Cordoba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Belgrano Cordoba attack+15%
  2. Gimnasia L.P. defence−29%

Expected goals1.11

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals40%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.2 for Gimnasia L.P. and 4.7 for Belgrano Cordoba

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.0 for Gimnasia L.P. and 2.6 for Belgrano Cordoba

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

28.6 expected

16.9 for Gimnasia L.P. and 11.6 for Belgrano Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

24.3 expected

11.6 for Gimnasia L.P. and 12.7 for Belgrano Cordoba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.