Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Barracas Central vs Racing Club

  1. Barracas Central38%
  2. Draw31%
  3. Racing Club31%

1.06 expected goals for Barracas Central

1.11 expected goals for Racing Club

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Barracas Central defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Racing Club defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 38% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Barracas Central

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Barracas Central attack−1%
  3. Racing Club defence−30%

Expected goals1.06

Racing Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Racing Club attack+24%
  2. Barracas Central defence−34%

Expected goals1.11

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%
  3. Over 2.5 goals38%
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.9 for Barracas Central and 4.3 for Racing Club

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Barracas Central and 2.5 for Racing Club

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

23.1 expected

13.8 for Barracas Central and 9.3 for Racing Club

  1. Over 20.5 shots64%
  2. Over 22.5 shots51%
  3. Over 24.5 shots39%

Fouls

23.7 expected

10.5 for Barracas Central and 13.2 for Racing Club

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.