Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman

  1. Banfield37%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Atletico Tucuman34%

1.22 expected goals for Banfield

1.42 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico Tucuman defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Tucuman attack, which scores 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 44% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Banfield

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Banfield attack+13%
  3. Atletico Tucuman defence−29%

Expected goals1.22

Atletico Tucuman

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Atletico Tucuman attack+19%
  2. Banfield defence−12%

Expected goals1.42

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.8 for Banfield and 4.5 for Atletico Tucuman

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Banfield and 2.5 for Atletico Tucuman

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

28.1 expected

15.9 for Banfield and 12.2 for Atletico Tucuman

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

22.7 expected

10.9 for Banfield and 11.8 for Atletico Tucuman

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.