Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Newells Old Boys vs Union Santa Fe

  1. Newells Old Boys39%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Union Santa Fe31%

1.27 expected goals for Newells Old Boys

1.31 expected goals for Union Santa Fe

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Newells Old Boys has the edge (39%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Union Santa Fe win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Newells Old Boys defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Union Santa Fe attack, which scores 37% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Newells Old Boys

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Newells Old Boys attack−5%
  3. Union Santa Fe defence−12%

Expected goals1.27

Union Santa Fe

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Union Santa Fe attack+37%
  2. Newells Old Boys defence−30%

Expected goals1.31

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.2 for Newells Old Boys and 3.9 for Union Santa Fe

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.3 expected

1.6 for Newells Old Boys and 2.7 for Union Santa Fe

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.6 expected

16.1 for Newells Old Boys and 10.6 for Union Santa Fe

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.6 expected

11.8 for Newells Old Boys and 12.8 for Union Santa Fe

  1. Over 20.5 fouls77%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.