Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Independ. Rivadavia vs Banfield

  1. Independ. Rivadavia50%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Banfield23%

1.88 expected goals for Independ. Rivadavia

1.18 expected goals for Banfield

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Independ. Rivadavia has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Banfield win at 23%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independ. Rivadavia attack, which scores 48% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Independ. Rivadavia defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Independ. Rivadavia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Independ. Rivadavia attack+48%
  3. Banfield defence−16%

Expected goals1.88

Banfield

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Banfield attack+14%
  2. Independ. Rivadavia defence−24%

Expected goals1.18

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.4 for Independ. Rivadavia and 4.4 for Banfield

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Independ. Rivadavia and 2.4 for Banfield

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.6 expected

16.6 for Independ. Rivadavia and 11.0 for Banfield

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

21.8 expected

9.9 for Independ. Rivadavia and 11.8 for Banfield

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.