Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto vs Gimnasia L.P.

  1. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto28%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Gimnasia L.P.43%

0.79 expected goals for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

1.64 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P.

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Gimnasia L.P. has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gimnasia L.P. defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gimnasia L.P. attack, which scores 37% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 41% chance, and both teams scoring, 45%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto attack−26%
  3. Gimnasia L.P. defence−30%

Expected goals0.79

Gimnasia L.P.

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gimnasia L.P. attack+37%
  2. Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto defence−12%

Expected goals1.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals41%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.6 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 4.5 for Gimnasia L.P.

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 2.2 for Gimnasia L.P.

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.7 expected

12.9 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 14.8 for Gimnasia L.P.

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

24.3 expected

12.8 for Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto and 11.4 for Gimnasia L.P.

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.