Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente

  1. Defensa Y Justicia41%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Independiente29%

1.30 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia

1.20 expected goals for Independiente

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Defensa Y Justicia has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Independiente win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Independiente defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Defensa Y Justicia defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 42% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Defensa Y Justicia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Defensa Y Justicia attack+27%
  3. Independiente defence−32%

Expected goals1.30

Independiente

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Independiente attack+18%
  2. Defensa Y Justicia defence−25%

Expected goals1.20

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals42%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.3 for Defensa Y Justicia and 4.5 for Independiente

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Defensa Y Justicia and 2.6 for Independiente

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

28.4 expected

15.6 for Defensa Y Justicia and 12.8 for Independiente

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

24.0 expected

13.4 for Defensa Y Justicia and 10.6 for Independiente

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.