Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos JRS

  1. Atletico Tucuman34%
  2. Draw32%
  3. Argentinos JRS34%

0.90 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman

1.17 expected goals for Argentinos JRS

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Argentinos JRS defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico Tucuman defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 36% chance, and both teams scoring, 44%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico Tucuman

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico Tucuman attack+19%
  3. Argentinos JRS defence−50%

Expected goals0.90

Argentinos JRS

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Argentinos JRS attack+24%
  2. Atletico Tucuman defence−31%

Expected goals1.17

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals87%
  2. Over 1.5 goals62%
  3. Over 2.5 goals36%
  4. Over 3.5 goals16%
  5. Over 4.5 goals6%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.2 for Atletico Tucuman and 5.0 for Argentinos JRS

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Atletico Tucuman and 2.3 for Argentinos JRS

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

25.1 expected

12.6 for Atletico Tucuman and 12.5 for Argentinos JRS

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

22.2 expected

12.6 for Atletico Tucuman and 9.6 for Argentinos JRS

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.