Probably Football

Matches

Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Gimnasia L.P.2-0Sarmiento Junin

The model's most likely result happened: a Gimnasia L.P. win (48%).

Gimnasia L.P. vs Sarmiento Junin

  1. Gimnasia L.P.48%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Sarmiento Junin24%

1.66 expected goals for Gimnasia L.P.

1.11 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Gimnasia L.P. has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Sarmiento Junin win at 24%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

6.4 for Gimnasia L.P. and 3.6 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Gimnasia L.P. and 2.6 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

29.4 expected

18.8 for Gimnasia L.P. and 10.6 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

23.1 expected

10.7 for Gimnasia L.P. and 12.4 for Sarmiento Junin

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.