Vitoria vs Fluminense
- Vitoria33%
- Draw28%
- Fluminense39%
1.00 expected goals for Vitoria
1.45 expected goals for Fluminense
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Fluminense defence, which lets in 47% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Fluminense attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Vitoria
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Vitoria attack+26%
- Fluminense defence−47%
Expected goals1.00
Fluminense
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Fluminense attack+63%
- Vitoria defence−35%
Expected goals1.45
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals71%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score51%
- Vitoria or draw61%
- Draw or Fluminense67%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.0 expected
4.5 for Vitoria and 4.5 for Fluminense
- Over 8.5 corners52%
- Over 9.5 corners41%
- Over 10.5 corners31%
Cards
4.5 expected
2.1 for Vitoria and 2.4 for Fluminense
- Over 3.5 cards65%
- Over 4.5 cards46%
- Over 5.5 cards29%
Shots
25.0 expected
13.4 for Vitoria and 11.6 for Fluminense
- Over 20.5 shots74%
- Over 22.5 shots62%
- Over 24.5 shots50%
Fouls
27.3 expected
13.1 for Vitoria and 14.2 for Fluminense
- Over 20.5 fouls88%
- Over 22.5 fouls79%
- Over 24.5 fouls67%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.