Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Flamengo vs Gremio

  1. Flamengo65%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Gremio12%

1.89 expected goals for Flamengo

0.73 expected goals for Gremio

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Flamengo the clear favourite: 65% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Flamengo defence, which lets in 63% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Flamengo attack, which scores 140% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 11.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Flamengo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Flamengo attack+140%
  3. Gremio defence−48%

Expected goals1.89

Gremio

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gremio attack+44%
  2. Flamengo defence−63%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.4 expected

7.0 for Flamengo and 4.4 for Gremio

  1. Over 8.5 corners74%
  2. Over 9.5 corners65%
  3. Over 10.5 corners55%

Cards

4.5 expected

1.9 for Flamengo and 2.6 for Gremio

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

29.1 expected

17.9 for Flamengo and 11.2 for Gremio

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

27.6 expected

13.5 for Flamengo and 14.1 for Gremio

  1. Over 20.5 fouls89%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls81%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls69%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.