Botafogo vs Atletico-MG
- Botafogo34%
- Draw27%
- Atletico-MG39%
1.06 expected goals for Botafogo
1.47 expected goals for Atletico-MG
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Atletico-MG defence, which lets in 45% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Atletico-MG attack, which scores 54% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 11.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Botafogo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Botafogo attack+28%
- Atletico-MG defence−45%
Expected goals1.06
Atletico-MG
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Atletico-MG attack+54%
- Botafogo defence−30%
Expected goals1.47
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals72%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals25%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score51%
- Botafogo or draw61%
- Draw or Atletico-MG66%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
11.1 expected
6.0 for Botafogo and 5.0 for Atletico-MG
- Over 8.5 corners71%
- Over 9.5 corners62%
- Over 10.5 corners52%
Cards
3.7 expected
1.6 for Botafogo and 2.1 for Atletico-MG
- Over 3.5 cards51%
- Over 4.5 cards32%
- Over 5.5 cards17%
Shots
29.3 expected
17.6 for Botafogo and 11.7 for Atletico-MG
- Over 20.5 shots88%
- Over 22.5 shots81%
- Over 24.5 shots72%
Fouls
23.2 expected
10.7 for Botafogo and 12.5 for Atletico-MG
- Over 20.5 fouls69%
- Over 22.5 fouls54%
- Over 24.5 fouls39%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.