Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Thursday 29 October, 18:00

Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo

  1. Vasco DA Gama30%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Flamengo43%

0.93 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama

1.57 expected goals for Flamengo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Vasco DA Gama

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Vasco DA Gama attack+66%
  3. Flamengo defence−63%

Expected goals0.93

Flamengo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Flamengo attack+121%
  2. Vasco DA Gama defence−48%

Expected goals1.57

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.5 for Vasco DA Gama and 5.0 for Flamengo

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Vasco DA Gama and 2.4 for Flamengo

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

25.1 expected

13.9 for Vasco DA Gama and 11.2 for Flamengo

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

26.0 expected

13.4 for Vasco DA Gama and 12.6 for Flamengo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls84%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls73%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.