Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Wednesday 28 October, 16:00

Final score

Santos0-0Palmeiras

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Palmeiras win (42%).

Santos vs Palmeiras

  1. Santos31%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Palmeiras42%

1.00 expected goals for Santos

1.56 expected goals for Palmeiras

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Palmeiras has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Santos win at 31%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It did not happen
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.6 for Santos and 4.3 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.4 for Santos and 2.3 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards34%

Shots

26.0 expected

13.5 for Santos and 12.5 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

24.7 expected

12.4 for Santos and 12.2 for Palmeiras

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.