Saturday 31 October, 14:00
Coritiba vs Vitoria
- Coritiba38%
- Draw28%
- Vitoria34%
1.15 expected goals for Coritiba
1.34 expected goals for Vitoria
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Vitoria defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Coritiba defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.5 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Coritiba
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Coritiba attack+21%
- Vitoria defence−37%
Expected goals1.15
Vitoria
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Vitoria attack+32%
- Coritiba defence−26%
Expected goals1.34
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals72%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Over 3.5 goals24%
- Over 4.5 goals11%
- Both teams score51%
- Coritiba or draw66%
- Draw or Vitoria62%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.5 expected
5.9 for Coritiba and 4.7 for Vitoria
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
4.7 expected
2.4 for Coritiba and 2.3 for Vitoria
- Over 3.5 cards68%
- Over 4.5 cards50%
- Over 5.5 cards32%
Shots
31.2 expected
16.1 for Coritiba and 15.1 for Vitoria
- Over 20.5 shots92%
- Over 22.5 shots87%
- Over 24.5 shots79%
Fouls
25.6 expected
12.8 for Coritiba and 12.8 for Vitoria
- Over 20.5 fouls82%
- Over 22.5 fouls70%
- Over 24.5 fouls57%
Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.