Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Friday 30 October, 18:00

Corinthians vs Mirassol

  1. Corinthians37%
  2. Draw30%
  3. Mirassol33%

1.04 expected goals for Corinthians

1.19 expected goals for Mirassol

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Corinthians

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Corinthians attack+27%
  3. Mirassol defence−46%

Expected goals1.04

Mirassol

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Mirassol attack+42%
  2. Corinthians defence−38%

Expected goals1.19

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals44%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.2 for Corinthians and 4.0 for Mirassol

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

5.2 expected

2.6 for Corinthians and 2.6 for Mirassol

  1. Over 3.5 cards76%
  2. Over 4.5 cards59%
  3. Over 5.5 cards41%

Shots

29.6 expected

17.5 for Corinthians and 12.1 for Mirassol

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

26.4 expected

11.8 for Corinthians and 14.6 for Mirassol

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.