Bahia vs Sao Paulo

Bahia43%
Draw29%
Sao Paulo28%

1.20 expected goals for Bahia

1.10 expected goals for Sao Paulo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Bahia has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 29% and a Sao Paulo win at 28%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals89%It happened
Over 1.5 goals68%It happened
Over 2.5 goals45%It happened
Over 3.5 goals20%It happened
Over 4.5 goals8%It happened

Both teams score51%
Bahia or draw72%
Draw or Sao Paulo57%
No draw71%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.0 for Bahia and 4.9 for Sao Paulo

Over 8.5 corners60%
Over 9.5 corners50%
Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.0 for Bahia and 2.4 for Sao Paulo

Over 3.5 cards63%
Over 4.5 cards44%
Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.0 for Bahia and 13.0 for Sao Paulo

Over 20.5 shots82%
Over 22.5 shots72%
Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

25.5 expected

13.2 for Bahia and 12.3 for Sao Paulo

Over 20.5 fouls82%
Over 22.5 fouls70%
Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.