Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Santos1-1Bahia

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Santos win (53%).

Santos vs Bahia

  1. Santos53%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Bahia23%

1.81 expected goals for Santos

1.26 expected goals for Bahia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Santos has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Bahia win at 23%. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

6.0 for Santos and 4.7 for Bahia

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

4.9 expected

2.7 for Santos and 2.2 for Bahia

  1. Over 3.5 cards72%
  2. Over 4.5 cards54%
  3. Over 5.5 cards36%

Shots

29.2 expected

17.7 for Santos and 11.5 for Bahia

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

25.5 expected

12.4 for Santos and 13.1 for Bahia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.