Flamengo vs Atletico-MG

Flamengo59%
Draw26%
Atletico-MG15%

1.63 expected goals for Flamengo

0.79 expected goals for Atletico-MG

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Flamengo the clear favourite: 59% to win. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.6 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
Over 1.5 goals70%It happened
Over 2.5 goals46%It happened
Over 3.5 goals23%It happened
Over 4.5 goals10%It happened

Both teams score50%
Flamengo or draw85%
Draw or Atletico-MG41%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.5 for Flamengo and 5.0 for Atletico-MG

Over 8.5 corners67%
Over 9.5 corners57%
Over 10.5 corners47%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for Flamengo and 2.5 for Atletico-MG

Over 3.5 cards68%
Over 4.5 cards49%
Over 5.5 cards32%

Shots

28.8 expected

14.7 for Flamengo and 14.1 for Atletico-MG

Over 20.5 shots87%
Over 22.5 shots79%
Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

24.6 expected

11.9 for Flamengo and 12.8 for Atletico-MG

Over 20.5 fouls77%
Over 22.5 fouls64%
Over 24.5 fouls49%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.