Probably Football

Matches

Serie A (Brazil)

Sunday 25 October, 16:00

Final score

Chapecoense-sc2-1Fluminense

The model gave this result 23%. Its most likely result was a Fluminense win (53%).

Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense

  1. Chapecoense-sc23%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Fluminense53%

0.88 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc

2.00 expected goals for Fluminense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Fluminense has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Chapecoense-sc win at 23%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

5.0 for Chapecoense-sc and 4.2 for Fluminense

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners43%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for Chapecoense-sc and 2.2 for Fluminense

  1. Over 3.5 cards63%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

26.0 expected

12.9 for Chapecoense-sc and 13.0 for Fluminense

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

28.4 expected

16.0 for Chapecoense-sc and 12.4 for Fluminense

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls84%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.