Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas

  1. Sporting Kansas City26%
  2. Draw21%
  3. FC Dallas53%

1.30 expected goals for Sporting Kansas City

2.65 expected goals for FC Dallas

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Dallas has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 21% and a Sporting Kansas City win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sporting Kansas City defence, which lets in 51% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Dallas attack, which scores 29% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 64%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sporting Kansas City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sporting Kansas City attack−4%
  3. FC Dallas defence−10%

Expected goals1.30

FC Dallas

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Dallas attack+29%
  2. Sporting Kansas City defence+51%

Expected goals2.65

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%
  4. Over 3.5 goals56%
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.8 for Sporting Kansas City and 4.5 for FC Dallas

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Sporting Kansas City and 2.1 for FC Dallas

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

26.6 expected

13.2 for Sporting Kansas City and 13.4 for FC Dallas

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.1 for Sporting Kansas City and 11.7 for FC Dallas

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.