Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

New York City FC vs CF Montreal

  1. New York City FC53%
  2. Draw26%
  3. CF Montreal21%

1.67 expected goals for New York City FC

0.92 expected goals for CF Montreal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

New York City FC has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a CF Montreal win at 21%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the New York City FC defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the CF Montreal attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

New York City FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. New York City FC attack−2%
  3. CF Montreal defence+14%

Expected goals1.67

CF Montreal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. CF Montreal attack−17%
  2. New York City FC defence−18%

Expected goals0.92

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.7 for New York City FC and 4.3 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.3 for New York City FC and 2.4 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

25.1 expected

15.1 for New York City FC and 10.0 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

26.3 expected

11.5 for New York City FC and 14.8 for CF Montreal

  1. Over 20.5 fouls85%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls74%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.