Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls

  1. Nashville SC59%
  2. Draw24%
  3. New York Red Bulls17%

1.90 expected goals for Nashville SC

0.68 expected goals for New York Red Bulls

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Nashville SC the clear favourite: 59% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Nashville SC defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Nashville SC attack, which scores 32% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Nashville SC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Nashville SC attack+32%
  3. New York Red Bulls defence−5%

Expected goals1.90

New York Red Bulls

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. New York Red Bulls attack−4%
  2. Nashville SC defence−48%

Expected goals0.68

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals73%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for Nashville SC and 4.5 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Nashville SC and 2.2 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.0 expected

15.0 for Nashville SC and 12.0 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

24.0 expected

11.6 for Nashville SC and 12.4 for New York Red Bulls

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls59%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls44%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.