Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 31 October, 13:00

FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union

  1. FC Cincinnati34%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Philadelphia Union44%

1.71 expected goals for FC Cincinnati

2.56 expected goals for Philadelphia Union

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Philadelphia Union has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a FC Cincinnati win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Philadelphia Union attack, which scores 52% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Cincinnati attack, which scores 39% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 72% chance, and both teams scoring, 72%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Cincinnati

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Cincinnati attack+39%
  3. Philadelphia Union defence−19%

Expected goals1.71

Philadelphia Union

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Philadelphia Union attack+52%
  2. FC Cincinnati defence+24%

Expected goals2.56

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals93%
  3. Over 2.5 goals72%
  4. Over 3.5 goals62%
  5. Over 4.5 goals42%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for FC Cincinnati and 4.6 for Philadelphia Union

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for FC Cincinnati and 2.3 for Philadelphia Union

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

27.9 expected

14.8 for FC Cincinnati and 13.1 for Philadelphia Union

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots76%
  3. Over 24.5 shots66%

Fouls

24.7 expected

11.3 for FC Cincinnati and 13.4 for Philadelphia Union

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls64%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.