Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Wednesday 28 October, 19:30

Final score

St. Louis City2-3Portland Timbers

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a St. Louis City win (52%).

St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers

  1. St. Louis City52%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Portland Timbers25%

2.32 expected goals for St. Louis City

1.63 expected goals for Portland Timbers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

St. Louis City has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Portland Timbers win at 25%. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 68%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals68%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals56%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals36%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.3 for St. Louis City and 4.4 for Portland Timbers

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for St. Louis City and 2.2 for Portland Timbers

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

26.1 expected

13.4 for St. Louis City and 12.8 for Portland Timbers

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

25.3 expected

13.7 for St. Louis City and 11.6 for Portland Timbers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 07:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.