Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 24 October, 21:30

Final score

Portland Timbers3-2Charlotte

The model's most likely result happened: a Portland Timbers win (38%).

Portland Timbers vs Charlotte

  1. Portland Timbers38%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Charlotte36%

1.53 expected goals for Portland Timbers

1.90 expected goals for Charlotte

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 63%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.9 for Portland Timbers and 4.5 for Charlotte

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Portland Timbers and 2.1 for Charlotte

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

31.1 expected

20.7 for Portland Timbers and 10.3 for Charlotte

  1. Over 20.5 shots91%
  2. Over 22.5 shots85%
  3. Over 24.5 shots77%

Fouls

21.1 expected

9.6 for Portland Timbers and 11.6 for Charlotte

  1. Over 20.5 fouls53%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls38%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls24%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.