Probably Football

Matches

Major League Soccer (USA)

Saturday 24 October, 18:30

Final score

Philadelphia Union1-2New England Revolution

The model gave this result 21%. Its most likely result was a Philadelphia Union win (56%).

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution

  1. Philadelphia Union56%
  2. Draw23%
  3. New England Revolution21%

2.32 expected goals for Philadelphia Union

1.29 expected goals for New England Revolution

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Philadelphia Union the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals29%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.9 for Philadelphia Union and 4.9 for New England Revolution

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.2 for Philadelphia Union and 2.4 for New England Revolution

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

26.5 expected

16.3 for Philadelphia Union and 10.2 for New England Revolution

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.0 expected

13.1 for Philadelphia Union and 10.9 for New England Revolution

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.