Probably Football

Matches

Primera B (Colombia)

Thursday 29 October, 16:00

Popayan vs Union Magdalena

  1. Popayan30%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Union Magdalena41%

1.08 expected goals for Popayan

1.44 expected goals for Union Magdalena

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Popayan

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Popayan attack−20%
  3. Union Magdalena defence−11%

Expected goals1.08

Union Magdalena

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Union Magdalena attack−13%
  2. Popayan defence+22%

Expected goals1.44

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals25%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.