Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 15:00

Prat vs Athletic Club

  1. Prat12%
  2. Draw14%
  3. Athletic Club74%

1.02 expected goals for Prat

1.96 expected goals for Athletic Club

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Prat

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Prat attack+26%
  3. Athletic Club defence−47%

Expected goals1.02

Athletic Club

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Athletic Club attack+54%
  2. Prat defence−6%

Expected goals1.96

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.