Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 15:00

Hortaleza vs Sevilla

  1. Hortaleza9%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Sevilla78%

0.98 expected goals for Hortaleza

2.27 expected goals for Sevilla

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Hortaleza

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Hortaleza attack+6%
  3. Sevilla defence−39%

Expected goals0.98

Sevilla

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sevilla attack+58%
  2. Hortaleza defence+5%

Expected goals2.27

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.