Friday 30 October, 17:00
Real Potosí vs Independiente Petrolero
- Real Potosí49%
- Draw28%
- Independiente Petrolero23%
1.15 expected goals for Real Potosí
1.03 expected goals for Independiente Petrolero
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Real Potosí
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Real Potosí attack−29%
- Independiente Petrolero defence+8%
Expected goals1.15
Independiente Petrolero
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Independiente Petrolero attack−1%
- Real Potosí defence−23%
Expected goals1.03
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals88%
- Over 1.5 goals65%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Over 3.5 goals18%
- Over 4.5 goals7%
- Both teams score51%
- Real Potosí or draw77%
- Draw or Independiente Petrolero51%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.3 expected
6.1 for Real Potosí and 4.2 for Independiente Petrolero
- Over 8.5 corners65%
- Over 9.5 corners55%
- Over 10.5 corners45%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.4 for Real Potosí and 2.5 for Independiente Petrolero
- Over 3.5 cards54%
- Over 4.5 cards35%
- Over 5.5 cards20%
Shots
28.7 expected
17.6 for Real Potosí and 11.1 for Independiente Petrolero
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
21.8 expected
10.9 for Real Potosí and 10.9 for Independiente Petrolero
- Over 20.5 fouls59%
- Over 22.5 fouls43%
- Over 24.5 fouls29%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 07:11 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.