Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:30

Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense

  1. Gimnástica Torrelavega29%
  2. Draw15%
  3. UD Ourense56%

1.45 expected goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega

1.49 expected goals for UD Ourense

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Gimnástica Torrelavega

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Gimnástica Torrelavega attack−2%
  3. UD Ourense defence−2%

Expected goals1.45

UD Ourense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. UD Ourense attack−1%
  2. Gimnástica Torrelavega defence+11%

Expected goals1.49

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.