Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

SS Reyes vs CD Coria

  1. SS Reyes44%
  2. Draw15%
  3. CD Coria41%

1.74 expected goals for SS Reyes

1.23 expected goals for CD Coria

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SS Reyes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SS Reyes attack−4%
  3. CD Coria defence+20%

Expected goals1.74

CD Coria

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. CD Coria attack−5%
  2. SS Reyes defence−5%

Expected goals1.23

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals35%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.