Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 15:00

Ribadesella CF vs Racing Santander

  1. Ribadesella CF17%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Racing Santander70%

1.46 expected goals for Ribadesella CF

2.25 expected goals for Racing Santander

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Ribadesella CF

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Ribadesella CF attack−3%
  3. Racing Santander defence0%

Expected goals1.46

Racing Santander

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Racing Santander attack+76%
  2. Ribadesella CF defence−6%

Expected goals2.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%
  5. Over 4.5 goals32%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.