Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 12:00

Numancia vs Oviedo

  1. Numancia22%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Oviedo62%

1.14 expected goals for Numancia

1.44 expected goals for Oviedo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Numancia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Numancia attack+10%
  3. Oviedo defence−31%

Expected goals1.14

Oviedo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Oviedo attack+5%
  2. Numancia defence+1%

Expected goals1.44

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.