Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Lebrijana vs Getafe

  1. Lebrijana19%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Getafe65%

0.94 expected goals for Lebrijana

1.39 expected goals for Getafe

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lebrijana

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lebrijana attack+9%
  3. Getafe defence−43%

Expected goals0.94

Getafe

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Getafe attack+8%
  2. Lebrijana defence−5%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.