Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Coruxo vs Zamora

  1. Coruxo28%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Zamora57%

1.50 expected goals for Coruxo

1.59 expected goals for Zamora

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Coruxo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Coruxo attack−3%
  3. Zamora defence+3%

Expected goals1.50

Zamora

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Zamora attack+4%
  2. Coruxo defence+12%

Expected goals1.59

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals82%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals37%
  5. Over 4.5 goals20%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 08:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.