Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Conquense vs Castellón

  1. Conquense11%
  2. Draw14%
  3. Castellón75%

0.92 expected goals for Conquense

1.91 expected goals for Castellón

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Conquense

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Conquense attack−5%
  3. Castellón defence−36%

Expected goals0.92

Castellón

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Castellón attack+50%
  2. Conquense defence−7%

Expected goals1.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.