Probably Football

Matches

Copa del Rey (Spain)

Thursday 29 October, 13:00

Atletico Calatayud vs Osasuna

  1. Atletico Calatayud13%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Osasuna74%

1.08 expected goals for Atletico Calatayud

2.06 expected goals for Osasuna

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Atletico Calatayud

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Atletico Calatayud attack−2%
  3. Osasuna defence−27%

Expected goals1.08

Osasuna

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Osasuna attack+42%
  2. Atletico Calatayud defence+7%

Expected goals2.06

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals38%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.