Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Friday 30 October, 07:55

Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Dhafra

  1. Al-Wasl FC82%
  2. Draw13%
  3. Al-Dhafra5%

3.20 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC

0.81 expected goals for Al-Dhafra

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al-Wasl FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al-Wasl FC attack+68%
  3. Al-Dhafra defence+26%

Expected goals3.20

Al-Dhafra

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Al-Dhafra attack−21%
  2. Al-Wasl FC defence−25%

Expected goals0.81

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%
  4. Over 3.5 goals57%
  5. Over 4.5 goals37%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

5.0 for Al-Wasl FC and 4.0 for Al-Dhafra

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Al-Wasl FC and 2.2 for Al-Dhafra

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

25.7 expected

15.9 for Al-Wasl FC and 9.8 for Al-Dhafra

  1. Over 20.5 shots76%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

22.4 expected

9.7 for Al-Wasl FC and 12.7 for Al-Dhafra

  1. Over 20.5 fouls63%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls47%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls33%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.