Probably Football

Matches

Pro League (United Arab Emirates)

Thursday 29 October, 09:10

Al Ain vs Ajman

  1. Al Ain74%
  2. Draw16%
  3. Ajman10%

2.83 expected goals for Al Ain

1.03 expected goals for Ajman

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Al Ain

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Al Ain attack+76%
  3. Ajman defence+7%

Expected goals2.83

Ajman

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Ajman attack+12%
  2. Al Ain defence−33%

Expected goals1.03

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

6.3 for Al Ain and 3.4 for Ajman

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Al Ain and 2.3 for Ajman

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.4 expected

18.1 for Al Ain and 9.3 for Ajman

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

21.6 expected

12.6 for Al Ain and 9.0 for Ajman

  1. Over 20.5 fouls57%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls41%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls27%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.