Probably Football

Matches

KNVB Beker (Netherlands)

Thursday 29 October, 14:00

Purmersteijn vs Gemert

  1. Purmersteijn32%
  2. Draw15%
  3. Gemert53%

1.23 expected goals for Purmersteijn

1.62 expected goals for Gemert

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Purmersteijn

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Purmersteijn attack+1%
  3. Gemert defence−19%

Expected goals1.23

Gemert

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gemert attack+17%
  2. Purmersteijn defence+2%

Expected goals1.62

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Saved before kickoff, on 28 October at 21:43 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.